These “Quick Breaks” are short breakdowns of upcoming fights. In a summed up focus of strengths, weaknesses and variables; this will analyze what could happen in the fight, and end with this writer’s prediction.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem could prove to be one of the biggest PPV’s of the year, and possibly ever. This fight headlines UFC 141 and truly pits two of the most dominant and physically large heavyweights against each other.
When this fight was announced, all that came to mind was the old math question from the school days…the one that asked when the two trains going at X velocity from two different locations would eventually collide. Seems our answer is December 30th.
Brock Lesnar is currently 5-2, coming off a loss to Cain Velasquez over a year ago. Alistair Overeem is 35-11, coming off a 10-fight winning streak. Statistics would favor Overeem.
The year layoff is huge, and how Brock has recovered from his illness is yet to be determined. Along with that, how has he improved since his turtle-antics in his fight with Velasquez? Hopefully, he has focused more on his striking and countering.
Alistair has the advantage while on the feet, even though his last fight against Werdum was a little lackluster. His kickboxing background is strong, and he is no stranger to big, strong guys. On the ground is where this fight can get interesting. Brock has excellent wrestling, and his sheer size will run you into the mat, but Overeem has proved time and again that he is no slouch on the ground.
Overeem has a submission advantage over Lesnar, but if Lesnar is reigning down hammerfists that lead to a TKO, there is not much time to catch an arm or leg. Both fighter’s necks (or lack thereof) paired with the other’s arms might negate the attempts of guillotines and other chokes! Lesnar can submit a fighter, but Overeem has rarely been caught in submissions, and usually is the one slapping them on.
Cardio is a huge factor here. This fight will probably end early, or go to a decision. If these two guy charge at each other and swing, someone is getting TKO’d/KO’d. If it draws into the third round, stamina will start to go. With great muscles comes great oxygen necessity. The air needed to fuel such big guys, as well as the heart to pump new blood to and from the muscles is a battle of its own.
Overeem has the stamina advantage, but if Alistair hasn’t put away Lesnar by the third or fourth round, chances are he won’t at all. There are always flurries and chances to capitalize on your opponent’s mistakes while they tire, but by the time Lesnar is gassed, one can suspect Overeem will be on his way too.
All in all, this fight will be over by the third round, or go to a decision. For the sake of the media and fans, we will all be hoping for the finish, but you never know. Two huge guys in front of each other means someone is getting hit hard, or they’ll be timid out of respect of their opponent’s abilities.
Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins via TKO about 3-4 minutes into the 1st Round.
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