The group think until recently is that Mitt Romney is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for President of the United States. There is not a path to victory for Mitt Romney. First, Romney can’t win in Iowa for many reasons aside from the fact the votes there just don’t like him.
And I don’t believe that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee. It is over for Mitt Romney.
Time magazine recently ran a cover story titled “Why Don’t They Like Me?” with a half-smiling Mitt Romney. The story was written by Joe Klein and discussed the phenomenon about Romney lack of likability.
Iowa appears to be out of Romney’s grasp because he started so late organizing there.
Gingrich holds a distinct edge over Romney, on a number of levels.
Forty-three percent said Gingrich has the “best” experience to be president, while just 16 percent said the same of Romney. Twenty-five percent said the former House speaker “best reflects the core values of the Republican Party,” while 12 percent said the same of the former Massachusetts governor. Twenty-four percent said Gingrich was the candidate most likely to stand up for what be believes in, while just 10 percent said that of Romney.
Even on electability, which has long been a pillar of Romney’s appeal (‘You may not love me, but you like Barack Obama way less, and I give us the best chance of beating him,’ is the sentiment), Gingrich has an edge. Twenty-nine percent of likely caucus-goers said Gingrich “has the best chance to defeat Barack Obama,” while 24 percent said that Romney was the party’s strongest nominee.
On issues, the story is the same. Asked who they trust most to handle the economy, which has been Romney’s pet issue for years, Gingrich has an 11-point lead. The former speaker enjoys an even wider lead over Romney, interestingly enough, on immigration (plus-19) and a far more narrow edge on social issues (plus-2).
There’s no path to victory in Iowa for Romney and a small path in New Hampshire that could evaporate quickly.
When it comes to South Carolina and Florida and Romney.
Then there is the latest poll. The CNN headline is “Gingrich front-runner in 3 of first states to vote.” More bad news for Romney.
(CNN) – Newt Gingrich tops the field of Republican presidential candidates by double digits in three of the four states to first hold contests in the race for the GOP nomination, according to new surveys in those states.
The CNN/Time/ORC International Polls, released Wednesday, indicate that strong support from the tea party movement is contributing to the former House speaker’s surge among likely Republican primary voters and caucus-goers. But the poll also suggests that this race is far from over, with less than half the people questioned in each state saying their minds are made up.
According to the poll, one-third of likely GOP caucus participants in Iowa say they are backing Gingrich. Thirteen points back, at 20% is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s making his second bid for his party’s nomination. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who’s making his third run for the presidency, is at 17%, with Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 9%, Rep. Michele Bachmann of neighboring Minnesota at 7%, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 5% and former Utah Gov. and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at 1%. Both Bachmann and Santorum have been crisscrossing Iowa.
Good news for Newt Gingrich. Well, let’s not crown him the GOP nominee just yet. After all, to know Newt Gingrich, is most certainly not to love Newt Gingrich.
At least Gingrich doesn’t have the likability problem and Gingrich does have a path to victory.
Send John Presta an email and your story ideas or suggestions, email@example.com. John is the author of an award-winning book, the 2010 Winner of the USA National Best Book award for African-American studies, published by The Elevator Group Mr. and Mrs. Grassroots: How Barack Obama, Two Bookstore Owners, and 300 Volunteers did it. Also available an eBook on Amazon. John is also a member of the Society of Midland Authors and is a book reviewer of political books for the New York Journal of Books