With a weakening cool front passing through Houston into the western Gulf of Mexico, we will say goodbye to the springlike readings in the 70s for a while. But be assured, the air mass that moves into Southeast Texas is by no means cold. Most readings through the course of the next week or so will be in the 60s by day and the 40s at night.
The most noticeable difference about this outlook from days previous will be its chances for rain. Skies may clear somewhat on Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday, however, a new storm will develop near Brownsville TX. This feature will be a rapid mover, with a few hours of moderate to heavy rainfall on Monday night. The short-lived sunny break on Tuesday will be followed by more rain and fog at midweek.
There are still many uncertainties about the holiday weekend, largely because of so many differences between the various numerical models. For now I am going along with a combination of the operational and variant formats of the European equation. With a Rex block trying to form in WA and BC and a possible storm ejecting from California, I suspect that rain and thunder could occur in Houston (and across the Deep South in general) on December 25 – 26. Temperatures locally are unlikely to be too cold, since any rain-making system would entrain a fetch off of the Gulf of Mexico.
As you may be aware, I have been cautioning against belief in the “winter is over” forecast that is being heard in much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. Warming of the stratosphere in Alaska and northern Canada, in combination with a falling sunspot number and unusually active (for a La Nina episode) subtropical jet stream across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are favorable teleconnections for colder than normal conditions to the right of the Rocky Mountains in January and February. It is still not calendar winter yet (and yes, scientifically that means something….), and we need to watch for possible changes in the jet stream configuration before declaring a season “over” before it has already begun.
Friday: Cloudy and cooler with a few showers. Highs 57 Conroe to 61 Friendswood
Friday Night: Cloudy, breezy and cool with periods of rain and drizzle. Lows 44 The Woodlands to 48 Alvin
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy and cool with rain ending in the morning. Highs 61 Spring to 65 Manvel
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy and cool. Lows 45 Klein to 49 Fresno
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, breezy a bit milder. Highs 63 Jersey Village to 67 Pearland
Monday: Variable cloudiness, windy and warmer. Showers and thunderstorms may be heavy after sunset. High 73, Low 58
Tuesday: Sunny and mild. High 67, Low 48
Wednesday: Increasing cloudiness early. Then rain and fog with some thunderstorms. High 68, Low 45